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Risk Taxonomy

The EDP Group's risk taxonomy aggregates, from an integrated perspective and in a common language, the various risk mappings existing at the level of the Group's various Platforms and Regions and is structured around five large families: Strategic & ESG, Energy Business, Financial, Counterparty and Operational.

Strategic and ESG Risks

The EDP Group closely monitors and reports risks of a strategic and ESG nature, since it believes that, if they materialise, they could have a significant impact, mainly in the medium and long term. Strategic & ESG risks can be broken down into two distinct natures: 

  • Strategic
  • ESG 
Energy Business Risks

Business risks include all the risk factors intrinsically linked to the remuneration of the EDP Group's core business of generating, trading, distributing and supplying energy in the various geographies and markets where it operates. Energy Business risks can be broken down into two distinct types: 

  • Energy markets
  • Regulation
Financial Risks

Financial risks include market risk factors complementary to those of the EDP Group's energy business (non-operational) in the various geographies and markets where it operates. Financial risks can be broken down into four different types: 

  • Financial markets
  • Asset rotation
  • Liquidity
  • Social liabilities 
Counterparty Risks

Counterparty risk is related to unexpected changes in the ability to fulfil obligations on the part of customers, as well as energy counterparties, financial counterparties (essentially associated with deposits with financial institutions, financial derivatives, and insurance) and suppliers. Additionally, it also includes “Integrity” to ensure an overarching structure of counterparty risk analysis. Counterparty risks can be broken down into two different types: 

  • Credit and operational
  • Integrity
Operational Risks

Operational risks aggregate the risk factors complementary to those of the EDP Group's energy and financial business in the various geographies and markets where it operates, associated with the planning, construction and operation of physical assets, execution of processes, systems, and legal and compliance. Operational risks can be broken down into four different types: 

  • Physical assets
  • Execution of processes
  • Systems
  • Legal & Compliance

Download the PDF below for a detailed description of EDP Group’s Risk Taxonomy.

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EDP Group's Risk Taxonomy
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EDP’s Top Risks

The top five risks observed for 2026 are: (1) Renewable Production Volumes, (2) Capital Gains on Asset Rotation, (3) Counterparty, (2) Energy Commodities, and (5) Assets in Operation

1

Renewable Production Volumes

The EDP Group is significantly exposed to fluctuations in renewable energy generation, particularly in hydro volumes, but also in wind and solar. Adverse conditions, such as a dry year and/ or lower wind and solar resources, can negatively affect the company’s financial performance.

  • Geographical and production portfolio diversification.

  • Long net position across multiple markets, with continuous monitoring to mitigate risk of over hedging, even in periods of low renewable resource availability.

  • In Iberia, offsetting lower hydro generation with increased thermal production.

  • Assessment and potential use of instruments to hedge renewable generation volumes (hydro and wind).

2

Capital Gains on Asset Rotation

Potential reduction in expected capital gains from asset rotation, driven by a decline in asset values resulting from lower market appetite, rising interest rates, falling energy prices, or adverse exchange rate movements.

  • Geographic and currency diversification of asset rotation, spanning Europe, North America, South America, APAC, and multiple currencies (EUR, USD, BRL, PLN, among others).

  • Exchange rate risk hedging (both Net Investment and transactional) in line with the EDP Group’s financial risk management policy.

  • Financing structures tailored to asset profiles, with currency mix, variable‑rate exposure, and maturity aligned to provide effective mitigation against interest rate increases.

3

Counterparty

Risk arising from the potential default (or from higher-than-expected level of default) on contractual obligations by customers, energy counterparties, financial counterparties (mainly related to deposits with financial institutions and financial derivatives) and/ or suppliers.

  • Counterparty diversification, with strict limits on concentration and on exposure to entities rated below Investment Grade.

  • Thorough counterparty assessment, applying differentiated risk limits and prioritising contracts with entities of the highest credit quality.

  • Continuous monitoring of the credit quality of all counterparties across the Group.

  • Use of counterparty risk‑mitigation mechanisms, including financial guarantees, clearing arrangements, and credit insurance.

  • Application of credit risk premiums in contracts where the EDP Group is the price‑setter, tailoring terms to counterparty profiles and compensating for expected losses.

4

Energy Commodities

Changes in commodity prices, essentially due to market exposure in Iberia to electricity, coal, gas and CO2 prices, but also in EDPR's other markets (residual exposure not covered by PPA). These variations can stem from multiple factors, namely shifts in supply and demand dynamics or national and international regulatory changes, and may impact the company's results.

  • Significant protection from market volatility, with a high percentage of EDP’s business secured through forward contracts and Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs).

  • Strong integration of generation and retail activities across several key geographies.

  • Prudent management of residual energy exposure not covered by PPAs, led by the Global Energy Management Unit, which handles coal, gas, and CO₂ licence contracts, and mitigates price risks through hedging strategies. This includes managing US dollar exchange rate risk in coordination with Corporate Finance.

5

Assets in Operation

Operational and integrity risks affecting in-service assets, including equipment failure, ageing, maintenance gaps, grid constraints, resource variability, and environmental events. These can lead to reduced energy output, higher O&M costs, downtime, accelerated degradation, and end-of-life liabilities, ultimately impacting cash flows and terminal value.

  • Geographical and production portfolio diversification

  • Asset integrity & availability through preventive/predictive maintenance, inspections, and robust O&M performance controls

  • Increase resilience to climate, extreme events, cyber and operational disruptions via adaptation measures, reinforced infrastructure and strong OT/IT security

  • Adequate insurance coverage (incl. PML reviews), aligned performance guarantees and updated end‑of‑life assumptions

  • Reinforce supply chain, compliance & stakeholder robustness via supplier diversification, ESG due‑diligence, regulatory monitoring, HSE excellence and proactive community engagement

The quantification of EDP's risks is based on the potential loss in EBITDA, in a P95% scenario, estimated through the application of Monte Carlo simulations. Monte Carlo simulation, through the definition of probabilistic distributions for each risk factor/variable, allows to simulate possible future outcomes; for each simulation, different values are randomly generated for each of the probability distributions of the various risk variables (inputs). The result of a Monte Carlo simulation is a probability distribution, i.e., a representation of the different possible future outcomes and their probability of occurrence. 

For each of these risks, EDP Group has carried out a qualitative/ quantitative assessment of their potential financial impact and likelihood. The resulting impact matrix is presented below as the EDP Group Risk Heatmap.
 

Heatmap

EDP favours risk management based on quantitative analysis and continuous monitoring of the risks that may affect its business. For this purpose, the company regularly carries out sensitivity analyses of financial and non-financial risks, as well as analyses of stressed scenarios, using Monte Carlo analysis, or focusing on some specific stress scenarios. This type of analysis is applied to EBITDA, EBT, NI, FFO/ND and all relevant output variables at group level and broken down by platform, technology, Business Unit, among others.

As an example, each year, EDP Group conducts a sensitivity analysis of various risk factors affecting the budget for the following year, including renewable volume (hydro, wind, solar), electricity price, gas price, electricity demand, inflation, exchange rate, and specific operational sensitivities for different markets, to assess their impact on Group's EBITDA. The impact of variations in certain risk factors on EDP's EBITDA is analysed and presented below:

  • Hydro volume: a significant risk factor for EDP given its portfolio and high volatility of the variable, impacting the company's generation capacity. Assuming a price of €60/MWh, a 20% reduction in the expected volume impacts EDP's EBITDA by ≈€70-110m. Notably, EDP's financial performance in 1Q2022 was strongly impacted by the extreme drought in Portugal during the winter of 2021/2022, resulting in ≈30% reduction compared to the historical average hydro production
  • Unavailability of assets: assuming an average 1% reduction in the availability of all EDP's generation assets (both conventional and renewable), the impact on EDP would be ≈€30-40m.

EDP faces additional risks beyond the top five already identified. Financial risks include rising interest rates, inflation, currency fluctuations, and liquidity pressures, all of which may impact profitability and capital gains across business segments. Operational risks involve delays in construction and asset development, supply chain constraints, asset damage or unavailability, and legal or compliance uncertainties. The networks segment is exposed to business continuity disruptions from extreme events, as well as uncertainties regarding the timing and terms of low voltage network concessions in Portugal. Furthermore, network operations in Iberia and Brazil are also subject to interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate volatility.

Additionally, liquidity and solvency stress analysis are also carried out to evaluate the company's ability to maintain sufficient liquidity and cash levels in highly stressful situations, considering two different scenarios: (1) a generalised liquidity crisis scenario for one year and (2) a EDP-specific stress scenario for two years. EDP ensures it has available liquidity, in cash and credit lines, to cover these scenarios. Furthermore, an annual climate risk analysis is conducted using three different scenarios, detailed in 2025 EDP’s IAR.
 

Emerging Risks

In addition to closely monitoring the main risks inherent to the group's activity, the main trends (at global and sectoral level) that may translate into threats and opportunities for the group are also comprehensively mapped, and appropriate mitigation strategies are proactively developed. The mapping of emerging risks is periodically updated, with an assessment by the EDP Group's top, executive and non-executive management. The main emerging risks identified are: 

         

 

 

 

 

Description

 

Potential Impacts

 

Mitigation Measures

 

Geopolitical Tensions at Global Level leading to sanctions/ tariffs and instability in EDP geographies

 

 

Increasing use of economic tools, policies, and sanctions as instruments of geopolitical competition. Instead of traditional warfare, nations leverage trade restrictions, tariffs, currency manipulation, and supply chain disruptions to achieve strategic objectives or assert dominance.

Significant risk to the global business environment by creating widespread instability. Escalations between major nations can disrupt trade routes, supply chains, and critical resource access, leading to market volatility and economic uncertainty.

 

  • The intensification of economic wars and geopolitical tensions presents a risk for EDP, especially in the context of the energy sector. These disputes, often manifesting as sanctions, tariffs, and other trade barriers, can disrupt supply chains, inflate costs, and limit market access.

  • Trigger of widespread economic disruptions, including supply chain interruptions restricting access to key resources, increased commodity prices, heightened market volatility.

 

  • Geographical and business diversification, including value chain diversification by contracting different equipment suppliers in different geographical areas (e.g., First Solar in the United States). Clear limits to ensure this diversification are set out in the Risk Appetite Framework.

  • Establishment of Frame Agreements with main equipment suppliers to secure future MWs volume (with fixed price).

  • Compliance Integrity Due Diligence screening of most relevant stakeholders.

  • Financial counterparty analysis for all relevant counterparties setting exposure limits according to risk level;

  • Continuous monitoring of geopolitical events with external advisors (identifying and quantifying main potential risks).

  • Duty of Care in the process of being updated for travelling collaborators.

 

Climate risks: Physical extreme events and precipitation reduction, regulatory transition risks

  

Adverse effects of climate change include extreme weather events, chronic changes in physical parameters, and the economic, regulatory, social, and technological shifts required for a low-carbon future.

 
  • Continuous rise in the number and severity of extreme weather events worldwide (e.g., storms, wildfires, heavy precipitation and floods, and landslides events). Reliability of infrastructure to more frequent and severe extreme climate events and overall costs increase (inc. insurance) are major risks.

 
  • Structured climate risks assessment (TCFD) and integration of climate criteria in investment analysis (project in development) with support tool (from Swiss Re).

  • Reduction of hydro share in EDP portfolio.

  • Prudent energy management through long positions to safeguard against extreme weather conditions.

  • Development of specific climate adaption plans, for example:

    • Revision of the dam safety plan in Brazil.

    • Greater involvement with suppliers to ensure the resilience of assets.

  • Replacement of conventional grids with compact grids.

 

Weakening Climate Transition Efforts

  

 

 

The energy transition is at risk due to declining political support and growing social resistance to new projects, which can delay or reverse key initiatives. Political instability, lack of consensus, and local opposition, often fuelled by misinformation or poor stakeholder engagement, create uncertainty, slow infrastructure deployment, and threaten progress toward sustainable energy and climate goals.

 
  • Project delays in countries with stricter environmental requirements. 

    • Pipeline cancellations for projects rendered unprofitable by reduced incentives (e.g., tax credits). 

      • Higher curtailment risk for operational assets if grid investment lags behind decentralized generation needs. 

        • Community opposition and misinformation slowing infrastructure deployment, damaging relationships, and risking reputation. 

        • Regulatory uncertainty increasing compliance complexity and financial pressure. 

        • Strategic impact: Slower progress toward sustainability goals, reduced access to green financing, and diverted resources from innovation, threatening long-term competitiveness.

 
  • Close monitoring of regulatory evolution and active participation in discussions at international & national levels.

  • Geographic diversification both by geography and technology with clear limits set out in the Risk Appetite Framework

  • Introduction of contractual buffers or merchant nose periods between CODs and PPA start dates to mitigate the possible impact of COD delays due to environmental permits.

  • Exposure limits to offshore business.

  • Limits to investment in projects that still have not reached the Final Investment Decision.

 

Increase in Cyber-attacks 

  

 

 

EDP’s growing reliance on digital infrastructure boosts operational efficiency but increases exposure to cyber risks. While its digital transformation prioritizes cyber resilience, the likelihood of more frequent and severe cyber‑attacks remains significant.

 
  • The economic and reputational impact of cybersecurity issues remains a concern, with the frequency and sophistication of cyberattacks expected to continue rising. The impact may affect both IT and OT levels (e.g., attacks on EDP’s generation and distribution assets), particularly in the following areas:

    • Losses resulting from the unavailability of critical EDP systems (e.g., dispatch/plants, billing, customer service).

    • In extreme cases, damage or destruction to physical assets and potential harm to human lives.

    • Data breaches or data loss (personal and other sensitive information).

    • Fines incurred due to GDPR violations.

    • Increased costs driven by higher investments in cybersecurity measures.

    • Damage to EDP’s reputation in the event of a cyberattack that affects power availability or compromises data privacy.

 
  • Dedicated Global SOC (ISO 27001 certified) for continuous security monitoring, detection, and response for the group's IT and OT infrastructure.

  • Cyber Executive Committee with top management participation.

  • Online and in-person training sessions, phishing simulations, and cyber exercises.

  • Cyber risk insurance.

  • Ongoing compliance initiatives to adhere to various and dispersed regulations.

  • Implementation of a Zero Trust Cybersecurity roadmap based on five key pillars: Security by Design, Resilient Architecture, Integration and Automation, Uniform Governance, Risk and Compliance, and Human Behaviour Security.

  • Specific OT cybersecurity roadmaps to address cyber risks in mission-critical infrastructures (e.g., networks, generation, energy management).

  • IT/OT Risk Project for identifying and managing the most critical IT/OT assets.

  • Participation at strategic, tactical, and operational levels in local and global cyber groups (e.g., World Economic Forum).

 

Social Risk: Gap in labour market and risk of unavailability of talent for renewable energy companies

 

  

The RES sector is growing fast due to higher demand for clean energy solutions and government initiatives to help the transition to low-carbon economies. The rise in RES industry is expected to create great demand for qualified professionals in engineering, project management, installation and maintenance. Meanwhile, demographic trends show a projected decline in EU’s working-age population and stabilization in US. This demographic shift, along with a projected rise in the need for workers in RES assets (3-4x.by 2030 in EU), is expected to create a global shortage of skilled labour in the green economy, reaching 7 million by 2030, mostly in solar & wind sectors. This shortage of skilled labour is a risk to EDP's BP. The company has ambitious targets for 2026-28, with the aim of deploying approximately 5 gigawatts of additional renewable capacity. It is expected a 90% Employees’ digital upskilling plan completion by 2028.

 
  • Increased competition in attracting and retaining specialized talent, leading to more competitive and aggressive recruitment and retention strategies;

  • EDP will need to become more involved in strategic workforce planning to identify critical roles, assess skills gaps, and implement measures to mitigate the impact of workforce shortages;

  • Heavier investment in innovation and automation to reduce reliance on manual labour, streamline processes, and boost efficiency, as well as invest in research and development;

  • Delayed project deadlines and risk of execution of the Business Plan;

  • Increased global mobility of the workforce, attracting talent from regions where there is a surplus of qualified labour in the renewable energy sector, increasing global collaboration, and the diversity of the workforce;

  • Significant investment in training and development programs to improve the skills of current employees and prepare them for roles in the renewable energy sector.

 
  • Implement proactive and global recruitment strategy to attract young, qualified workers by creating internship/apprenticeship programs offering 1st hand experience to students interested in RES;

  • Implement strategies to retain skilled workers (offer competitive compensation packages, career development opportunities and positive work environment);

  • Regular assessments of workforce need to identify critical roles and develop strategic learning paths to fill skills gaps;

  • Comprehensive training programs focusing on upskilling/reskilling workers to prepare them for jobs in the RES sector (e.g. academic partnerships, peers);

  • Promote a flexible, diverse and inclusive workplace to leverage the strengths of a diverse workforce;

  • EDP has been working on innovative automation projects to overcome the labour shortage challenge and increase efficiency. It also advocates for government and institutional support (policies, incentives and funding) to boost workforce development efforts.

 

Change in insurance landscape

  

The insurance landscape is shifting as insurers revaluate coverage in a fast-changing environment. On one hand, increasingly severe natural disasters driven by climate change are leading to higher premiums, stricter exclusions, and reduced availability of coverage for events like floods, wildfires, and hurricanes. At the same time, the escalating frequency and sophistication of cyberattacks are prompting insurers to tighten policy terms, lower limits, and introduce exclusions for specific cyber outcomes (e.g., impact on physical assets). Additionally, heightened regulatory scrutiny and litigation risks related to environmental legal claims (e.g., concentration of chemical components) are causing insurers to reevaluate liability coverage, raising premiums or limiting options for affected industries.

 
  • The overall shift in insurance policies drives up expenses associated with securing adequate coverage or addressing existing risks, meaning that EDP will have a higher cost with insurance premiums and/or decrease the ability to mitigate risk through insurance.

  • Lack of protection for insurance also leads to additional costs with infrastructure fortification for EDP assets, advanced cybersecurity measures, and alternative risk transfer mechanisms to mitigate gaps in coverage and ensure business continuity.

 
  • Boost Infrastructure Resilience against extreme weather events to reduce vulnerability/potential damages;

  • Ensure assets in bundles (geographies/types of assets) to ensure all assets/risks are included;

  • Work with insurers to avoid inappropriate risk premiums/exclusions;

  • Apply robust cybersecurity measures (advanced threat detection systems, regular vulnerability assessments, training);

  • Diversify Risk Transfer Strategies (catastrophe bonds, captives, risk-sharing partnerships) to offset traditional insurance coverage gaps;

  • Boost Risk Assessment/Planning (regular risk analysis, advanced analytics) to anticipate/prepare for threats (climate, cyber, liability risks);

  • Engage in Stakeholder Collaboration (insurers/peers) to defend fair/sustainable insurance solutions;

  • Increase Compliance/Safety Standards to minimize liability risks of hazardous substances/chemical components;

  • Build Financial Reserves for Self-Insurance against high-prob. risks reducing reliance on external coverage.

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